Thursday 24 December 2015

Quarter Four Local By-Election Results 2015

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Q3
Average/
contest
+/- Q3
+/-
Seats
Conservative
68
 32,135
  26.9%
 +4.8%
    473
   +25
   +4
Labour
62
 27,580
  23.1%
 -7.8%
    445
  -214
    0
LibDem
50
 16,104
  13.5%
 +3.9%
    322
   +61
   -2
UKIP
44
   6,981
    5.8%
 -0.5%
    159
    +1
   -2
Green
40
   4,970
    4.2%
 -1.1%
    124
   -37
   +1
SNP*
12
 16,463
  13.8%
 -6.8%
  1,372
  -524
    0
PC**
  8
   2,222
    1.9%
 +0.5%
    278
   -45
   +1
TUSC
  3
      108
    0.1%
 -0.1%
     36
   -17
    0
Ind***
30
 10,653
    8.9%
 +5.4%
    355
 +244
    0
Other****
12
   2,394
    2.0%
 +0.0%
    200
  +81
   -2

* There were 13 by-elections in Scotland
** There were eight by-elections in Wales
*** There were seven independent clashes
*** Others this month were Guildford Greenbelt Group (145), Scottish Socialist Party (122), Ind Health Concern (725), Liberal Party (283), Yorkshire First (32), Scottish Libertarian (20), Llais Gwynedd (112 & 49), People First (58), Epsom Resident's Association (591), All People's Party (39), and Baker St: No Two Ways (218)

Overall, 119,610 votes were cast over 73 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 20 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter Three's results here.

This is the first full quarter with Jeremy as leader, so do the results tell us anything? Not really. The reduced Labour vote is well within the fluctuation range one expects from one quarter to another. If it remains persistently below our scores this time last year, then yes, something could well be happening. Elsewhere the LibDem revival continues while UKIP stubbornly flops at the ballot box time after time.

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