Saturday, 31 March 2018

Quarter One 2018 Local By-Election Results

Overall, 110,609 votes were cast over 70 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison you can view Quarter Four 2017's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q4
+/- Q1 2017
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         65
42,388
   38.3%
 +5.9%
  +10.3%
   652
    -4
Labour
         63
33,051
   29.9%
  -4.8%
   +4.5%
   525
     0
LibDem
         49
17,122
   15.5%
  -2.7%
    -6.2%
   349
   +6
UKIP
         16
 1,491
    1.3%
  -1.3%
    -8.4%
    93
    -2
Green
         39
 3,983
    3.6%
 +0.4%
    -0.3%
   102
     0
SNP*
          4
 4,418
    4.0%
 +0.8%
   +1.4%
 1,106
   +1
PC
          0
  
   
      
  
     0
Ind***
         31
 6,441
    5.8%
 +1.4%
   +2.9%
   208
    -2
Other****
          5
 1,715
    1.6%
 +0.7%
    -4.2%
   343
   +1

* There were four by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were six Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter consisted of Blue Revolution (13), Elvis Bus Pass (41), Ewell Residents (398), Farnworth and Keasley First (1,204), and Something New (59).

Chillax Labour people. The score managed by the Conservatives and Labour doesn't mean we've clambered into the TARDIS and taken ourselves back to this time last year. You'll remember the double-point poll leads and the sense Theresa May could do no wrong. What an analysis does show (if you go and look at the individual monthly totals) that we have spent an awful lot of time in natural Tory territory this quarter. And as per the polarisation we've seen since last year's general election results, both the main parties are miles ahead of everyone else. They're up on Q1 2017 at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Others and, to a much lesser extent, the Greens.

Without knowing what's on the board (Miss Ford) for the next three months a prediction is hard to venture. Continued polarisation, yes. LibDems doing better than their national polling figures, yes. And the death spiral of UKIP carrying on like the good fellow it is? Undoubtedly.

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